8,454 Active Recruiters     Over 2 Million Candidates Globally

Advanced
  1. Keep me logged in
  2. forgot password
cancel

Checkout Jobs Basket (0)

You can checkout a maximum of 150 jobs.

Signup Better for Candidates

  • Create a free virtual CV and let recruiters find you
  • Automatically have your profile matched to suitable Oil & Gas positions
  • Link to your profile using it as a free online CV
  • Store all your employment documents to your profile for easy sending
  • Always receive feedback on positions applied for

Signup Better for Recruiters

  • Suitable candidates automatically matched to your position
  • View candidate profiles for free
  • No more waiting for candidates to respond to job advertisements
  • Only ever pay when you match a candidate to a position
  • No more cold calling and sorting through out dated CVs

Offshore Oil to Peak in 2020, Then Join the Shale Slump, Says Analyst

Published in Oil Industry News on Friday, 15 November 2019


Graphic for News Item: Offshore Oil to Peak in 2020, Then Join the Shale Slump, Says Analyst

Offshore oil production is expected to hit a peak in 2020 before joining the shale industry in a slowdown that could dramatically rewrite market supply predictions.

A report by analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. sees projects in the Gulf of Mexico and off of South America significantly boosting output next year. After that, though, the odds drop for any further growth gains, the report found. Meanwhile, two well-known shale pioneers last month forecast a downturn ahead for their sector.

Together, the warnings could signal a new era for a commodity that’s selling for about half the price reached just five years ago. The catalyst is a shareholder push for spending discipline. The result: Potentially a “tempting scenario” for investors where oil prices rise even as costs and demand fall, said Bob Brackett, a Bernstein report author.

Three crude sources have seen substantive growth this century -- deepwater, shale and oil sands, according to Brackett. “The first peaks in 2020,” he wrote in an email. “The second peaks a few years later (and is slowing). And the future of oil sands is in question from a sustainability/CO2 impact.”

Topping Out. The offshore industry has struggled to maintain growth since oil prices plunged to less than $30/bbl in 2016 after reaching more than $100 in mid-2014.

The high prices spurred a flurry of expensive projects between 2010 and 2014. But today those projects are “barely able” to generate value, according to industry consultant Rystad Energy, which evaluated offshore oil fields sanctioned since 2010 in an Oct. 30 report and ranked them by estimated value per barrel of oil.

While newer deepwater projects are less expensive, they still take longer to develop than shale wells and they can’t compete on costs. Over the last few years, roughly $100 billion in spending has shifted to shale work as a result, according IHS Markit.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s decision last month to pull the plug on a pair of projects in Kazakhstan because of their high costs points to offshore’s changing status. The latest example hit last week when Brazil failed to draw bids from the world’s oil majors in its auction of deep-sea deposits that could hold 15 Bbbl of oil, almost twice as much as Norway’s reserves.

“The pipeline of things that have been discovered just won’t get sanctioned,” Brackett said. Shale industry pioneers Scott Sheffield, Pioneer Natural Resources Co.’s chief executive officer, and Mark Papa, who built Enron Corp. castoff EOG Resources Inc. into one of the world’s biggest independent oil explorers, are sounding the alarm on shale growth.

Across the shale industry, output growth will slow next year, Sheffield said on Nov. 5. That will provide a boost for prices through the early 2020s, he said.

“U.S. shale production on a year-over-year growth basis will be considerably less powerful in 2021 and later years than most people currently expect,” Papa said during an earnings call for Centennial Resource Development Inc., his current company.

To be sure, both the shale and offshore sectors will continue to produce. Sheffield sees about 700,000 bpd being added next year in U.S. shale fields while the Energy Information Administration predicts daily production will expand by 910,000 bbl. Even that, though, would be half of last year’s increase.

In early 2020, Exxon Mobil Corp. is expected to begin producing oil from deepwater wells off the coast of Guyana that have the potential to produce more than 6 Bbbl. Meanwhile, eight new projects are opening in the Gulf of Mexico this year and in 2020, according to an Oct. 16 report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Even so, the Gulf’s share of U.S. production overall is expected to shrink, the EIA report said, to about 15% from 23% in 2011. In 2014, the industry had 245 floating rigs working globally, according to Evercore ISI. Now there are less than half that number, and workers in the industry see few silver linings ahead.

“The fracing technology has just opened up so much more oil,” said Chip Keener, a former manager of the global rig fleet for Transocean Ltd., the biggest owner of deepwater rigs. “Deepwater I think is going to be on the skids for a very long time.”

Source: www.worldoil.com

Please leave comments and feedback below





Tags

North Sea Oil and Gas News, Norwegian Oil and Gas News, Helicopters Oil and Gas, Oil and Gas News








Oil and Gas News Archive


Latest Oil & Gas News







Featured Companies

  • View All JobsOMPA

    Offshore Marine People & Academy (OMPA) is a global provider of personnel and training to the renewables, oil & gas, telecommunications and marine industries.

    With over 15 years' industry experience, we work with candidates to match them to the right roles and equip them with the skills and knowledge needed to succeed. Our job is to exceed your expectations.

    Visit us online: offshorempa.com

  • View All JobsChronos Oil and Gas

    Chronos Oil and Gas is one of the fastest growing and best placed recruitment agencies in the sector.

    With over 300,000 candidates on our database and an international team of specialist recruiters we work with clients to staff major projects around the world.

    Register your CV at www.chronosoilandgas.com

  • View All JobsNatural Resources

    Natural Resources is a UK based recruitment company providing personnel of all disciplines and nationalities worldwide.

    We represent clients and candidates at all levels who operate globally within oil & gas, renewables, nuclear, power, mining, marine, drilling, construction and petrochemicals. Our client base includes energy and construction.

    Visit Natural Resources at natural-resources.com